If you've been watching the Northern Virginia market and trying to figure out whether it favors buyers or sellers right now, the honest answer last week was: both, in different rooms of the same house.

We pulled the Cardinal Title Group contract data from April 28 through May 4, and the picture is more interesting than the usual one-sided headline. Sellers are still firmly in the stronger position — but the gap is narrower than it was a month ago, and the way it's narrowing is worth paying attention to.

Here's what 269 recent contracts across the region are actually telling us.

Half of homes are now selling above list

49% of Northern Virginia homes went under contract above list price last week. Another 31% landed right at list. Only 19% sold for less than asking — and that number was 25% the week before.

In plain English: roughly 4 out of 5 NoVA homes are now selling at or above what the seller asked for. That's a meaningful shift in one week, and it's the strongest over-list reading we've seen in the data we've been tracking.

Speed is picking up too

30% of homes went under contract in under a week. That's up from 25% the prior week. And the slowest bucket — homes sitting 22 days or longer — dropped 10 points, from 30% down to 20%.

When over-list percentages and speed move together, it usually means one thing: there are more serious buyers than serious listings, and the serious buyers are competing.

But buyers are getting concessions back during the deal

Here's where it gets interesting. While the front end of the transaction looks hotter, the back end is softening.

Home inspection waivers dropped 9 points in a single week — from 45% of buyers waiving down to 36%. That means roughly 2 out of 3 buyers are now keeping a home inspection in their contract. A year ago in the heat of the spring market, that number was much lower.

Seller subsidies nearly doubled. 17% of sellers contributed toward the buyer's closing costs last week, up from 9% the week before. That's a real shift, and it's showing up at the same time over-list offers are climbing.

The story: buyers are willing to compete hard to win the house — but once they're under contract, they're holding their ground on inspections and asking for help with closing costs. That's leverage. Quiet leverage, but leverage.

Appraisal waivers held steady, financing held steady

Not everything moved. 42% of buyers waived the appraisal contingency (same as the prior week). 16% paid cash (same as the prior week). 41% waived the financing contingency (down a touch from 43%).

The headline waivers — appraisal and financing — are roughly where they've been. It's specifically the inspection waiver, the one that protects buyers from inheriting someone else's deferred maintenance, that's coming back.

What this means for you

If you're a buyer: You probably still need to come in strong on price to win in Loudoun, Ashburn, Brambleton, Aldie, and the surrounding markets. But you have more room to keep your inspection contingency and ask for closing-cost help than you did a month ago. Compete on price. Protect yourself on terms.

If you're a seller: The market is rewarding you on the front end — half of homes are going over list, and they're going fast. Just go in knowing the buyer is more likely to ask for an inspection and a subsidy than they were two weeks ago. Price it right, prep it right, and budget for some give-and-take after the offer is signed.

If you're trying to figure out where your specific home or your specific search fits into this picture, send us a text or a DM. Happy to walk through it with you.

Tags: #NorthernVirginiaRealEstate #LoudounCounty #MoveUpBuyer #MarketUpdate #EllisProperties

Data from Cardinal Title Group's weekly contract sample, April 28 – May 4, 2026.